For Clues About The Future Of Mortgage Rates, Watch For Inflation

Homes are more affordable in Seattle and across the nation as the housing market emerges from a slow winter season with mortgage rates still near 5 percent.

Soft housing and low rates are an excellent combination for home buyers but whereas home values rise with a gradual pace, mortgage rates change in an instant.  It's something worth watching.

Each 0.25% increase to conventional or FHA rates adds approximately $16 per month for each $100,000 borrowed. Mortgage rate volatility can change your household budget.

If you're trying to gauge whether rates will be rising or falling, one keyword for which to listen is "inflation". Mortgage rates are highly responsive to inflation.

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $2.00 now costs $2.15. As consumers, we perceive inflation as goods becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive, per se. It's that the dollars used to buy them are worth less.

This is a big deal to mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars.  As the dollar loses value to inflation, therefore, so does the value of every mortgage bond in existence. When bonds lose their value, investors don't want them and bond prices fall.  Mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices. 

Prices down, rates up.

In today's market, the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is helping home buyers. The Cost of Living made its smallest annual gain in 6 years last month and the Fed has repeatedly said that inflation will stay low for some time. The combination is driving investors to buy mortgage bonds which, in turn, is suppresses rates.

So long as it lasts, the cost of homeownership will remain relatively low. Combined with the expiring tax credit, the timing to buy a Seattle home may be as good as it gets.

Single-Family Housing Starts Hold Steady For The 8th Straight Month

Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.

According to the Commerce Department's report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.

This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.

Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true.  Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month.  However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:

1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. "Apartment Building" Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)

The press tends to lump all 3 together but that's not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers. 

2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too.  Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country's housing stock.

Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months. 

Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.

With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers in Bellevue will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (March 16, 2010 Edition)

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy "has continued to strengthen" and that the jobs markets "is stabilizing".  It also said that business spending has "has risen significantly".

This is a slight departure from the Fed's January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be "picking up".

It's also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism.  This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.

The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:

1. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
2. Housing starts are at a "depressed level"
3. Consumer credit remains tight

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to end its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates in Seattle are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (March 16, 2010 Edition)

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy "has continued to strengthen" and that the jobs markets "is stabilizing".  It also said that business spending has "has risen significantly".

This is a slight departure from the Fed's January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be "picking up".

It's also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism.  This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.

The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:

1. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
2. Housing starts are at a "depressed level"
3. Consumer credit remains tight

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to end its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates in Kirkland are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.

A Rate-Locking Strategy For Today's Fed Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 1-day meeting today, its second of the year. 

The FOMC has held the Fed Funds Rate in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent since December 16, 2008, and the voting members of the Fed are expected to vote "no change" again today.

However, no change in the Fed Funds Rate doesn't necessarily mean no change in mortgage rates.  This is because the Fed Funds Rate is a different interest rate from the rates Seattle home buyers get from a loan officer. 

• Fed Funds Rate : Short-term rate at which banks borrow from each other
• Mortgage Rate : Long-term rate of interest a homeowner pays on a mortgage

Mortgage rates are more responsive to what the Fed says as compared to what the Fed does. 

After each FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co issue a formal press release to the markets.  At roughly 400 words, the statement is a brief commentary on the strengths, weaknesses, and threats for the U.S. economy.

Wall Street watches the statement with great interest and this is why mortgage rates are often volatile on the days of an FOMC adjournment. One mention of a word like "inflation" and traders rush to dump their mortgage bond positions.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

After the Fed’s last meeting in January, it told us that the economy had "weakened further", led by steep declines both in housing and employment. Global demand was off, too.  The negative tone of the Fed's statement caused mortgage rates to fall to near an all-time low.

This month, expect a less gloomy message.

Since January, there's been a modest rebound in housing, employment appears more stable, and Retail Sales just posted huge gains.  If the Fed alludes to improvement in any or all three, mortgage rates will likely reverse and zoom higher.

We can’t know what the Fed today will say so if you're floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe approach would be to do it today, prior to 2:15 PM ET.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 15, 2010

Mortgage markets worsened last week with little economic news to push markets in either direction. Momentum trading and rebalancing of portfolios drove mortgage rates higher, on average.

FHA and conventional mortgage rates in Washington rose last week, marking the first time that's happened this month. 

Mortgage rates have been on impressive run lately and mortgages are priced far better than what most experts predicted.  Weaker-than-expected economic data is one reason why.  Lack of economic data may be another.

This week, however, data returns.

• Monday : Industrial Production and Home Builder Index
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits
• Wednesday: Consumer Confidence
• Thursday : Producer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday : Consumer Price Index and Continuing Jobless Claims

And, as if all that weren't enough to spook you, the Federal Open Market Committee meets for a scheduled, 1-day event Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is expected to vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its current target range near 0.000%, but that doesn't mean mortgage rates won't change. Markets are responsive to the FOMC's post-meeting press release and any clear talk of economic strengthening should drive rates higher.

Wall Street is in Wait-and-See Mode and this week will give it plenty to look at.

If you're floating a mortgage rate, or waiting to lock, be prepared for wild swings in mortgage rates -- especially leading up to Tuesday afternoon's FOMC adjournment. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM.

How To Refinance When Your Home Is Underwater

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has extended the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program by 12 months.

HARP's new end date is June 30, 2011.

Originally known as Making Home Affordable, HARP aims to help California homeowners refinance their mortgage who may otherwise be ineligible because of falling home values.

There are 4 basic HARP criteria every borrower must meet:

1. The existing home loan must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
2. Your home must be a 1- to 4-unit property
3. You must have a perfect mortgage payment history going back 12 months. No 30-day lates allowed.
4. Your first mortgage balance must be 125% or less of your home's market value

If you're not sure whether Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac back your mortgage, you can look it up. Fannie's website is http://www.fanniemae.com/loanlookup; Freddie's is http://freddiemac.com/mymortgage.  If you don't locate your loan on either website, your mortgage is backed by a third-party and is not HARP-eligible.

For homeowners that meet HARP's criteria, there are some underwriting details of which to be aware.

First, if your original mortgage does not require mortgage insurance, your HARP mortgage will not require it, either -- regardless of your new loan-to-value.

Second, all HARP refinances require income verification. It doesn't matter if your original mortgage was a stated income or no income verification loan. You should expect to produce 1040s and W-2s for your HARP refinance and asset statements, too.

And, lastly, second (and third) mortgages may not be "rolled in" to a new first mortgage loan balance. Junior lien holders must agree to remain in a junior lien position, regardless of combined loan-to-value.

There is a thorough HARP FAQ section on the government's website, but it's for general questions only. For specific Home Affordable Refinance Program information, first make sure you're program-eligible, then pick up the phone to call your loan officer. 

HARP is complex enough that you'll want to talk with a human before taking a proper next step.

How To Refinance When Your Home Is Underwater

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has extended the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program by 12 months.

HARP's new end date is June 30, 2011.

Originally known as Making Home Affordable, HARP aims to help Washington homeowners refinance their mortgage who may otherwise be ineligible because of falling home values.

There are 4 basic HARP criteria every borrower must meet:

1. The existing home loan must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
2. Your home must be a 1- to 4-unit property
3. You must have a perfect mortgage payment history going back 12 months. No 30-day lates allowed.
4. Your first mortgage balance must be 125% or less of your home's market value

If you're not sure whether Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac back your mortgage, you can look it up. Fannie's website is http://www.fanniemae.com/loanlookup; Freddie's is http://freddiemac.com/mymortgage.  If you don't locate your loan on either website, your mortgage is backed by a third-party and is not HARP-eligible.

For homeowners that meet HARP's criteria, there are some underwriting details of which to be aware.

First, if your original mortgage does not require mortgage insurance, your HARP mortgage will not require it, either -- regardless of your new loan-to-value.

Second, all HARP refinances require income verification. It doesn't matter if your original mortgage was a stated income or no income verification loan. You should expect to produce 1040s and W-2s for your HARP refinance and asset statements, too.

And, lastly, second (and third) mortgages may not be "rolled in" to a new first mortgage loan balance. Junior lien holders must agree to remain in a junior lien position, regardless of combined loan-to-value.

There is a thorough HARP FAQ section on the government's website, but it's for general questions only. For specific Home Affordable Refinance Program information, first make sure you're program-eligible, then pick up the phone to call your loan officer. 

HARP is complex enough that you'll want to talk with a human before taking a proper next step.

Foreclosures Per Capita | February 2010

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 12th straight month last month as 1 in every 418 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.

It's a small improvement from January and a just 6 percent increase over February 2009.

On a per-capita basis, foreclosure density varied by state:

• Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 102 homes
• Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• California : 1 foreclosure filing per 195 homes

Also, as in January 2010, foreclosures across the country were concentrated. 10 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average; 40 states fell below. Like everything else is real estate, it seems, foreclosures are local.

For today's Seattle home buyers, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity. 

Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes. It's one reason why distressed home sales account for 38 percent of all resales. However, less expensive doesn't always mean less costly.  A foreclosed home may be in various stages of disrepair and they're often sold as-is, as policy.

Buying new or used in Kirkland can be cheaper than buying broken-down.

Therefore, if you're in the market for a bank-owned home, make sure you know what you're buying before you sign a contract. Have qualified professionals review and inspect the property, as needed. Damage to pipes or the property's structure, for example, may not be so obvious on a walk-though and you'll want to know about it before you buy.

Also, foreclosed homes are federal tax credit-eligible. Buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.

Don't Rush To Refinance That ARM -- It May Be Adjusting To 3 Percent Or Lower

If your mortgage is set to adjust this year, the smart move may be to let it. Today's conforming mortgages are adjusting lower than ever before -- as low as 3 percent.  It may not be what you expected when you signed for your ARM several years ago.

The reason why ARMs are adjusting lower is because of how they're made.

When conforming adjustable-rate mortgages adjust, they adjust according to a pre-determined formula. The formula is the sum of a constant and a variable.  The constant is usually 2.25 percent and the variable is a daily-changing interest rate called LIBOR.

The formula looks like this:

New Mortgage Rate = LIBOR + 2.250 percent

LIBOR is an acronym for London Interbank Offered Rate.  It's an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other. In Fall 2008, when Lehman Brothers fell and sparked a global banking fear, LIBOR spiked as the risk of inter-bank borrowing jumped. 

Since then, however, LIBOR is down.

Normalcy is returning to banking and the timing couldn't be better for Kirkland homeowners with ARMs. 15 months ago, a homeowner's ARM may have adjusted to 6 1/2 percent.  Today, that same ARM falls to just above 3.

As a strategy play, it might make sense to let your ARM adjust. Or, because fixed rates are still near 5 percent, converting that ARM to a long-term fixed-rate product might make sense, too.  The decision is a balance between how low do you want your payment, and how long might you live in your home.  

The longer you stay, the more it might make sense to switch to fixed-rate, even though ARM rates are so low.

If you've got an adjusting ARM, talk to your loan officer about your choices. Once March ends and the Fed withdraws its mortgage market support, mortgage rates may rise and the fixed-rate option may be gone.

7 Weeks Remain To Find A Home, Claim Up To $8,000 In Tax Credits

In November, Congress extended and expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program to include a subset of "move-up" buyers -- homeowners that have owned and lived in their home for 5 of the last 8 years.

The credit ranges up to $8,000 per buyer. There's now just 7 weeks left to take advantage.

To be eligible, home buyers must be under contract for a new home no later than April 30, 2010, and must be closed no later than June 30, 2010.

In addition to meeting the deadline dates, there's a basic set of requirements to be tax credit-eligible:

• You can't purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
• You can't purchase the home from an entity in which the seller is a majority owner
• You can't acquire the home by gift or inheritance
• Each buyer in the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

There's other criteria, too.

For one, the sales price on the subject property cannot exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible for the tax credit. Furthermore, households earning more than $125,000 as single-filers, or $225,500 for joint-filers, are ineligible.

You can read the complete eligibility requirements at the IRS website, or, you may just find it simpler to speak with your accountant about it. There are some nuances in qualifying for and claiming the tax credit on your returns and getting a professional's opinion is always wise.

And lastly, don't forget that government's tax credit program is a true tax credit. It's not a tax deduction.  This means that a tax filer whose "normal" tax liability is $3,500 and who is eligible for $8,000 in credit will receive a $4,500 refund from the U.S. Treasury.

If you're currently in the House Hunt, mark your calendar for April 30, 2010. It's 7 weeks away and you can be sure that as the date gets closer, buyer traffic is going to increase.  You may find sellers more willing to negotiate today than several weeks from now.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 8, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week in low-volume trading.

Between Monday to Thursday, Wall Street focused on the upcoming jobs reports and mortgage markets gained while traders jockeyed for position. Mortgage rates drifted lower through Thursday afternoon. But, then, after a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday morning, mortgage markets -- and mortgage rates -- reversed.

Overall, mortgage rates dropped last week, but only by a small margin. Rates were best Thursday afternoon.

It was the second consecutive week in which mortgage rates fell.

Last week was also interesting in that both stock markets and bond markets improved, proving that rates don't always rise when stock prices do. 455 of the S&P 500 companies posted gains last week.

If you're shopping for a home or a refinance, though, don't rest on your laurels. After Friday's big sell-off, this week opens into a major headwind and, plus, the Federal Reserve's support for mortgage markets ends in just 3 weeks.

This week, without much data to influence traders, the upward momentum in rates may have little cause to temper. We'll see the Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday.  Beyond that, there's not much else.

After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates in Washington may be poised to rise rather sharply. If you're waiting for the right time to lock your rate, it may have been this past Thursday. Consider locking your rate early this week to protect against further rate hikes.

Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It's compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  -- the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked "pending" close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

1. Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
2. Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
3. The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there's a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Bellevue and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market's recent momentum.

Tying Friday's Jobs Report To Rising Mortgage Rates

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in Washington have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February's Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government's monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation's recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don't spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday's mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you're worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

How To Properly Screen A Prospective Tenant

According to the the National Association of Realtors®, "distressed homes" represented nearly 2 of every fifth home sold in January 2010.  Clearly, real estate investors in Kirkland and around the country are taking advantage of good deals on cheap property.  But there's risk involved.

This NBC Today Show interview first ran in March 2009, featuring real estate expert Barbara Corcoran. Despite its age, the message remains relevant. Today may be a terrific time to buy a bank-owned home -- just make sure you do your research first.  There's plenty of ways for investors to get burned.

Some of the tips in the video include:

• Buy in your own backyard
• Start small, then build to a bigger portfolio
• Watch receipts -- rent rolls don't matter if tenants aren't paying rent

Corcoran also gives pointers on how to evaluate a prospective tenant.

Foreclosures should represent a large number of 2010's total home sales and will offer interesting opportunities to bona fide real estate investors. Before you jump in, make sure to watch the video. The rents you save may be your own.

Remember, the stats and the data are from 12 months ago, but the advice stays meaningful.

Existing Home Sales Drop Again In January But Stay On The Trendline

The winter months have not been kind to home sales.

After plunging 17 percent in December, Existing Home Sales fell by an additional 7 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. An "existing home" is a home resold by a previous owner (i.e. not new construction).

In looking at the annualized, adjusted Existing Home Sales data, we find:

1. Sales volume is at its lowest levels since June 2009
2. Sales volume fell below its 12-month rolling average
3. Home supplies are at a 5-month high

These are similar findings to the New Home Sales data issued by the government last week.  That report put new home sales at a 40-year low and showed new homes supplies higher by an entire month.

But don't think housing rebound has halted! Home sales are cyclical and there are outside forces on today's market.

For one, the market is still feeling the after-effects of the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Sales spiked in the months leading up to the original November 2009 expiration date. A pull-back is natural and expected.

Looking at the long-term trend, Existing Home Sales volume appears right in line.

Furthermore, weather across much of the U.S. was awful in January. That, too, can impede home sales as homes are neither shown nor negotiated when weather is majorly inclement.

Anecdotal evidence is showing sales activity higher through February and into March. And, although it's unlikely we'll see a spike through April like we did last November, buy-side demand for homes should remain strong. The good news of the sagging sales reports is that today's buyers may find home prices are lower and sellers are more willing to negotiate.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 1, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week as economic reports painted a less-than-stellar portrait of the U.S. economy and concerns of a looming monetary policy change eased. Mortgage pricing improved dramatically, despite a late-Friday retreat.

Mortgage rates are now at their lowest levels since early-February.

Last week was heavy on negative data:

• Consumer Confidence posted 16% short of expectations
• New Home Sales posted 13% short of expectations
• Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected

In addition, both the Case-Shiller and Home Price Indices showed a slight pullback in the housing sector.

The impact of these statistics was muted, however. This is because Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his semi-annual outlook to Congress and markets focused more on the chairman verbiage than hard data, looking for clues about the future of Fed policy.

Bernanke stayed on message -- the Fed Funds Rate will stay low for an extended period of time.

Mortgage rates were also helped by a strengthening U.S. dollar and demand for U.S.-denominated bonds. When demand for mortgage-backed bonds is strong, mortgage rates fall.

This week, mortgage rates will jockey around Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Jobs are playing a large role in mortgage bond trading and markets expect that 30,000 jobs were lost in February.  If the actual figure is better than 30,000 jobs lost, mortgage rates will rise. If it's worse, rates will rise.

Other important data this week include Personal Consumption Expenditures -- the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- plus the Fed's Beige Book release.  Mortgage rates remain in flux so float with caution.

Mortgage rates look good today, but by Friday, they could be much, much worse.